A VC: Herky Jerky Investing

The WSJ says some venture funds hit pause on big deals. The Journal describes

a group of venture capitalists dialing back on certain deals after a breathless year of venture investing that had some comparing 2011 to the late 1990s dot-com bubble. Many venture capitalists said they now are increasingly passing on companies seeking frothy valuations, and some are trying to get off the beaten path to find cheaper deals.

I am not a fan of this start and stop style of investing. Nobody can time markets. You can't deliver great returns to your investors by being a momentum investor during some periods and a value investor in others.

I believe the only way to be a top performing investor in any asset class is to have a disciplined investment strategy and approach and apply it consistently and actively in all markets all the time.

I am proud that our firm has been investing at about the same rate of new investments per year for almost eight years now. It hasn't gone up much but it also has not gone down much. We will never be the most active venture capital firm. But we will never be inactive either. We are open for business as much today as any other day in the past eight years. If you are building a large network of engaged users that has the potential to disrupt a big market, please talk to us about what you are doing.

Source: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2012/01/herky-jerky-investing.html

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Russian river water unexpected culprit behind Arctic freshening, researchers find

ScienceDaily (Jan. 4, 2012) ? A hemispherewide phenomenon -- and not just regional forces -- has caused record-breaking amounts of freshwater to accumulate in the Arctic's Beaufort Sea.

Frigid freshwater flowing into the Arctic Ocean from three of Russia's mighty rivers was diverted hundreds of miles to a completely different part of the ocean in response to a decades-long shift in atmospheric pressure associated with the phenomenon called the Arctic Oscillation, according to findings published in the Jan. 5 issue of Nature.

The new findings show that a low pressure pattern created by the Arctic Oscillation from 2005 to 2008 drew Russian river water away from the Eurasian Basin, between Russia and Greenland, and into the Beaufort Sea, a part of the Canada Basin bordered by the United States and Canada. It was like adding 10 feet (3 meters) of freshwater over the central part of the Beaufort Sea.

"Knowing the pathways of freshwater in the upper ocean is important to understanding global climate because of freshwater's role in protecting sea ice -- it can help create a barrier between the ice and warmer ocean water below -- and its role in global ocean circulation. Too much freshwater exiting the Arctic would inhibit the interplay of cold water from the poles and warm water from the tropics," said Jamie Morison, an oceanographer with the University of Washington's Applied Physics Laboratory and lead author of the Nature paper.

Morison and his six co-authors from the UW and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory are the first to detect this freshwater pathway and its connection to the Arctic Oscillation. The work is based on water samples gathered in the field combined with satellite oceanography possible for the first time with data from NASA satellites known as ICESat and GRACE.

"Changes in the volume and extent of Arctic sea ice in recent years have focused attention on the impacts of melting ice," said co-author Ron Kwok, senior research scientist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "The combined GRACE and ICESat data allow us to now examine the impacts of widespread changes in ocean circulation."

Taken as a whole, the salinity of the Arctic Ocean is similar to the past, but the change in the freshwater pathway means the Eurasian Basin has gotten more saline while the Canada Basin has gotten fresher.

"The freshening on the Canadian side of the Arctic over the last few years represents a redistribution of freshwater, there does not seem to be a net freshening of the ocean," Kwok said.

In the Eurasian Basin, the change means less freshwater enters the layer known as the cold halocline and could be contributing to declines in ice in that part of the Arctic, Morison said. The cold halocline normally sits like a barrier between ice and warm water that comes into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean. Without salt the icy cold freshwater is lighter, which is why it is able to float over the warm water.

In the Beaufort Sea, the water is the freshest it's been in 50 years of record keeping, he said. The new findings show that only a tiny fraction is from melting ice and the vast majority is Eurasian river water.

The Beaufort Sea stores a significant amount of freshwater from a number of sources, especially when an atmospheric condition known as the Beaufort High causes winds to spin the water in a clockwise gyre. When the winds are weaker or spin in the opposite direction, freshwater is released back into the rest of the Arctic Ocean, and from there to the world's oceans. Some scientists have said a strengthening of the Beaufort High is the primary cause of freshening, but the paper says salinity began to decline in the early 1990s, a time when the Beaufort High relaxed and the Arctic Oscillation increased.

"We discovered a pathway that allows freshwater to feed the Beaufort gyre," Kwok said. "The Beaufort High is important but so are the broader-scale effects of the Arctic Oscillation."

"A number of people have come up with ways of looking at regional forces at work in the Arctic," Morison said, "To better understand changes in sea ice and the Arctic overall we need to look more broadly at the hemispherewide Arctic Oscillation, its effects on circulation of the Arctic Ocean and how global warming might enhance those effects."

In coming years if the Arctic Oscillation stops perpetuating that low pressure, the freshwater pathway should switch back.

Morison and the co-authors argue that, compared to prior years, the Arctic Oscillation has been in its current state for the last 20 years. For example, the changes detected in response to the Arctic Oscillation between 2005 and 2008 are very similar to freshening seen in the early 1990s, Morison said.

Discerning the track of freshwater from Eurasian rivers would have been impossible without the ICESat and GRACE satellites, Kwok and Morison agree. With satellite measurements of ocean height and bottom pressures, the researchers could separate the changes in mass from changes in density -- or freshwater content -- of the water column.

"To me it's pretty spectacular that you have these satellites zipping around hundreds of kilometers above the Earth and they give us a number about salinity that's very close to what we get from lowering little sampling bottles into the ocean," Morison said.

Other co-authors are Cecilia Peralta-Ferriz with the UW's School of Oceanography and Matt Alkire, Ignatius Rigor, Roger Andersen and Mike Steele, all with the UW's Applied Physics Laboratory.

The work was funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA.

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Journal Reference:

  1. James Morison, Ron Kwok, Cecilia Peralta-Ferriz, Matt Alkire, Ignatius Rigor, Roger Andersen, Mike Steele. Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways. Nature, 2012; 481 (7379): 66 DOI: 10.1038/nature10705

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/~3/ALBwTjRehtk/120104153749.htm

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SNB boss under scrutiny over wife's currency deals (AP)

GENEVA ? The president of the Swiss National Bank has come under fire over a currency deal that saw his wife profit handsomely from the central bank's decision to depress the value of the franc ? but the bank has decided she did not break its secret rules against insider trading.

The case came to light when the SNB issued an unprompted statement Dec. 23 declaring that "rumors" of wrongdoing by President Philipp Hildebrand were unfounded ? a statement that left many questions unanswered.

Citing an unnamed informant, Zurich daily Blick reported Tuesday that his wife Kashya Hildebrand had bought more than half a million U.S. dollars on Aug. 15, before selling them again Oct. 12 at a profit of 61,000 francs ($65,000). The figures are similar to those reported by the respected Neue Zuercher Zeitung paper.

On Sept. 6, the Swiss National Bank set the minimum exchange rate of the euro at 1.20 francs ? a surprise move that caused the value of the franc to instantly drop about 8 percent against other major currencies including the dollar.

The Swiss National Bank confirmed that Kashya Hildebrand, a former currency trader who now runs an art gallery in Zurich, bought an unspecified amount of U.S. dollars for herself and her daughter Aug. 15. The central bank declined to say whether she sold them for a profit, but declared that the bank's board concluded Dec. 22 there had been no inappropriate transactions nor any abuse of privileged information.

An SNB spokeswoman, however, declined Tuesday to provide a copy of the rules governing personal deals by senior directors of the bank. "These are internal regulations that aren't public," Silvia Oppliger told The Associated Press.

Media commentators and lawmakers across the political spectrum called Tuesday for greater transparency from the bank and from Hildebrand, a dashing 48-year-old whose unblemished image is considered crucial to the credibility of Switzerland's small but powerful central bank.

"Was the Hildebrands' dollar deal really OK?" headlined Blick, while lawmaker Philipp Mueller of the pro-business Free Democratic Party suggested that Hildebrand's wife should now declare all of her currency deals over the past year.

"The federal cabinet would do well to uncover everything," Green Party lawmaker Daniel Vischer told the DRS radio station. Susanne Leutenegger Oberholzer of the Social Democratic Party said it was unjustifiable for the SNB to keep its guidelines on insider trading secret.

Considerable media attention has also focused on who might have leaked the Hildebrands' confidential bank information, with several newspapers pointing the finger at former Justice Minister Christoph Blocher. The billionaire businessman, a leading figure in the nationalist Swiss People's Party, has repeatedly criticized Hildebrand's management of the central bank.

Blocher has declined to comment on the case.

(This version corrects exchange rate in paragraph 4.)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/eurobiz/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20120103/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_switzerland_central_bank

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Rams fire coach, GM after another dismal year

FILE - This Nov. 27, 2011 file photo shows St. Louis Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo talking on a headset on the sidelines during the first quarter of an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals, in St. Louis. The Rams have fired coach Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney. The team made the announcement Monday, Jan. 2, 2012, a day after the team wrapped up a 2-14 season that tied for the NFL's worst. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam, File)

FILE - This Nov. 27, 2011 file photo shows St. Louis Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo talking on a headset on the sidelines during the first quarter of an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals, in St. Louis. The Rams have fired coach Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney. The team made the announcement Monday, Jan. 2, 2012, a day after the team wrapped up a 2-14 season that tied for the NFL's worst. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam, File)

FILE - In this April 20, 2010, file photo, St. Louis Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo, left, and general manager Billy Devaney discuss their options for the first pick of the NFL football draft during a news conference at the team's training facility in St. Louis. The Rams have fired coach Spagnuolo and general manager Devaney. The team made the announcement Monday, Jan. 2, 2012, a day after the team wrapped up a 2-14 season that tied for the NFL's worst.(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

FILE - This Dec. 4, 2011 file photo shows St. Louis Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo on the sideline during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, in San Francisco. The Rams have fired coach Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney. The team made the announcement Monday, Jan. 2, 2012, a day after the team wrapped up a 2-14 season that tied for the NFL's worst. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, FIle)

FILE - This Dec. 18, 2011 file photo shows St. Louis Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo on from the sidelines during the third quarter of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, in St. Louis. The Rams have fired coach Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney. The team made the announcement Monday, Jan. 2, 2012, a day after the team wrapped up a 2-14 season that tied for the NFL's worst. (AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)

FILE - This Nov. 13, 2011 file photo shows St. Louis Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo yelling late in the fourth quarter during an NFL game against the Cleveland Browns, in Cleveland. The Rams have fired coach Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney. The team made the announcement Monday, Jan. 2, 2012, a day after the team wrapped up a 2-14 season that tied for the NFL's worst. (AP Photo/Amy Sancetta, File)

(AP) ? Next year will be Chris Long's fifth season with the St. Louis Rams. The defensive end will be playing for his fourth coach in a seemingly endless cycle of futility.

Having survived Scott Linehan, Jim Haslett and Steve Spagnuolo, who knows what's next? And this time, the Rams also are shopping for a general manager.

"It's building, it's rebuilding. It's building, it's rebuilding," Long said. "We take some hits and we have get back up and dust ourselves off. We'll certainly have to dust ourselves off after this season."

Spagnuolo and GM Billy Devaney were both fired Monday, one day after the Rams wrapped up a 2-14 season tied for the NFL's worst.

The Rams made a six-win improvement last season and played for the NFC West title in the finale, but were just 10-38 overall in three seasons with Spagnuolo and Devaney calling the shots. Devaney joined the front office in 2008, but the Rams were 12-52 in his four years as GM.

"It's amazing how easily it all could have gone the other way and this would be a totally different meeting at the end of the year," Long said. "And, maybe we are still playing. It's a fine line between being good and bad in the NFL, and we've learned that over the past couple of years here."

Owner Stan Kroenke fired his coach and GM with one year remaining on their contracts, and with fan interest dwindling. The Edward Jones Dome was little more than half-full later in the year and the team had to purchase tickets to meet requirements for a sellout in the finale.

"No one individual is to blame for this disappointing season and we all must hold ourselves accountable," Kroenke said in a statement issued by the Rams. "However, we believe it's in the best interest of the St. Louis Rams to make these changes as we continue our quest to build a team that consistently competes for playoffs and championships."

Players said Spagnuolo took the high road in a meeting Monday morning.

"Coach addressed the team this morning to let us know that he was terminated and he was sorry, especially for the guys that have been here the entire three years he was coach, that he didn't get the job done," running back Steven Jackson said. "He took full responsibility."

Next April, the Rams will have the second pick of the draft, the fourth time in five seasons with the No. 1 or 2 selection. The premium picks, including Long and quarterback Sam Bradford, have not been enough to make up the frequent miscues and a puny offense run by first-year coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Names of potential replacements for Spagnuolo began to surface weeks ago as the season unraveled, with Jon Gruden and Jeff Fisher linked as naturals given their relationships with chief operating officer Kevin Demoff and agent Marvin Demoff.

Spagnuolo was considered a defensive whiz after an impressive performance by the Giants in a Super Bowl upset of the unbeaten Patriots in 2008, and got a four-year contract for his first head coaching job. The Rams were 1-15 in 2009 while undertaking a massive overhaul, then made a six-victory improvement in 2010, and entered this season viewed as NFC West contenders.

Instead, they were swamped by a difficult schedule, losing their first six in a row, and also by injuries at quarterback, the secondary and the offensive line.

Cornerback Ron Bartell, who sustained a season-ending neck injury in the opener, re-signed as a free agent with the Rams because of his respect for Spagnuolo.

"I love coach Spags to death but at the end of the day when you don't get wins this is what happens," Bartell said.

Spagnuolo was criticized for devoting too much time to the cosmetics of the job. He pushed for a $1 million renovation of the stadium locker room the team uses 10 times a year, and surrounded himself with a new trainer, public relations head, building operations manager and equipment manager.

Yet the players said they believe the foundation is here for a good team.

Long, among the league leaders with 13 sacks, said Sunday that the 49ers' quick turnaround can serve as inspiration. San Francisco made a seven-victory jump and is the No. 2 playoff seed in the NFC after going 13-3, including a season-ending win in St. Louis.

"You're never as far away as you think in this league," Long said. "It's super competitive. They came out of nowhere and now they're in the playoffs and have a shot."

Devaney loaded up with free agents last summer in an effort to augment a team that was in the division race to the end but had too many misses.

The offense was the NFL's worst, with or without Bradford. The defense was the NFL's worst against the run, threatening the franchise record for yards allowed. A pair of special teams failures were devastating, a blocked field goal on the potential game-winner and a 99-yard punt return, in an overtime loss at Arizona.

The Rams put everything together once for a 31-21 upset over the 13-win Saints, even with backup A.J. Feeley calling the signals. Jackson became the seventh player in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in seven straight seasons despite the personnel upheaval and Long and middle linebacker James Laurinaitis also had good years.

But the team's depth was tested immediately when leading wide receiver Danny Amendola and Bartell were lost for the year and Jackson injured his quadriceps on his first carry in a season-opening loss to the Eagles

"We've got a lot of guys that unfortunately were banged up," Laurinaitis said. "I think a full offseason together will help. I don't think 2-14 reflects this team if everyone is healthy. We'll see."

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/347875155d53465d95cec892aeb06419/Article_2012-01-02-FBN-Rams-Spagnuolo-Fired/id-055e0b475aa1474a9cc3f16ccf0f2260

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Praise and pans for Mayor Rob Ford

Most people who attended the annual New Year?s Levee hosted by Mayor Rob Ford on Monday were there to shake his hand and say well done, although the event was twice interrupted by protesters railing against budget cuts. Here?s what four Torontonians had to say about the love-him-or-hate-him mayor:

More related to this story

Doug Mitchell, North York

?I?m here to congratulate the mayor, keep up the good job and run the city the way he is. He should run the city like a business ? trim the fat ? increase user fees. People have to work for what they want so they appreciate it more.?

Moe Levin, downtown, until leaving for school

?I think his controversy is really detrimental to Toronto. We haven?t had a mayor that?s so controversial in the past, and it?s almost as if he celebrates his mediocrity as a mayor ? [the population] is sort of diametrically opposed, the attitude of people in Toronto and the people in the suburbs.?

Ken Street, Etobicoke

?I like lots about [Rob Ford]. I?m not disappointed. Nobody?s perfect. ? I think everybody should be accountable for what they say and for what they spend. People have got to be accountable.?

Andrew Jones, Etobicoke

?I?m going to shake his hand and maybe get a picture. I?ve got a picture of his niece Krista Ford with me and hopefully he can sign that.?

Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/praise-and-pans-for-mayor-rob-ford/article2289387/?utm_medium=Feeds:%20RSS/Atom&utm_source=Toronto&utm_content=2289387

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wvlt: Manhunt at Mount Rainier for killer of ranger: A manhunt continues at Washington's Mount Rainier National Park f... http://t.co/bl3cuOzy

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Utah football: Bowl game could be statement game for Utes? D

El Paso, Texas ? Utah?s 2011 football season will not only be remembered for Utah?s inaugural experience in the Pac-12, but also for the way the defense carried the team in the absence of starting quarterback Jordan Wynn.

It?s fitting then that Utah?s defense gets one last chance to shine as the Utes face Georgia Tech (8-4) in the Sun Bowl Saturday.

The game kicks off at noon and will be televised by CBS.

Since the Yellow Jackets are the nation?s third best rushing team, averaging 316.8 yards a game, and Utah?s defense has a strong reputation for shutting down rushers, the Utes (7-5) view Saturday?s contest in Sun Bowl Stadium as a great chance to put their final stamp of ownership on the 2011 season.

"It?s an exciting offense and it can be hard to stop, but that?s why we like the challenge," safety Brian Blechen said. "You always want to stop the run and they are such a good running team, we?ve been working hard and watching film and getting ready for it. You can?t prepare enough for it."

In a testament to their team-mindfulness, Utah?s defenders are careful to give credit to Utah?s offense for games won this year as much as to themselves.

"There have been times when they?ve bailed us out too," linebacker Chaz Walker said.

Really, those times were scarce as the Utes? defense strives to own games.

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"If our offense can score 10 points, then our defense better hold [the opponent] to nine points or less," Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said. "That has always been our mentality, we want a shutout every game."

The Utes never got a shutout this year but do rank 18th nationally, giving up just 19.7 points a game. That is an impressive number on its own, but even more so given the number of turnovers and other struggles the Utes? offense had that put the defense in bad situations.

For a season that was anticipated to be all about Norm Chow?s new offense, 2011 was more of the same for the Utes as the defense shut down one team after another.

The only game the Utes had a poor defensive showing was in the 34-10 loss to Cal when the Utes gave up 384 yards, Whittingham said.

"The defense has played well from the onset, from Game 1 through Game 12," he said. "We?ve had very consistent football, at or near the top of all the major statistics and I attribute that to the attitude and work of the defensive players."

Others attribute it to the Utes? system, which was put in place by Whittingham?s father, Fred, and honed by his son.

It is so consistent that even Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Brian Bohannon, who was on Navy?s staff in 2007, sees similarities between the defense he played that day and the one his Georgia Tech team faces in the Sun Bowl.

"I left the field that day impressed with how tough they are and I don?t think it will be any different now," he said. "The personnel is different, but the scheme and the way they recruit, they are not going to change a whole lot."

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Source: http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/utes/53205482-89/utah-utes-defense-bowl.html.csp

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LoneStarSA: Save Energy Dollars with a Solar Powered Attic Vent System http://t.co/znWG2bgG #remodeling #fb

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The Department of Defense Does the Right Thing for Addicted Military Personnel

December 30, 2011 11:48 AM The Department of Defense Does the Right Thing for Addicted Military Personnel

By Keith Humphreys

Tri-Care, DOD?s health insurance program, has historically refused to cover opiate substitution therapy (e.g., buprenorphine, methadone) for military personnel and family members who are addicted to pain killers and/or heroin. Harold Pollack and I wrote about this at length in American Prospect earlier this year, noting in particular that these life saving therapies not being covered is a tragedy and injustice at a time when addiction rates are soaring in the military.

Thankfully, DoD has wisely proposed to change Tri-Care?s insurance coverage for drug addiction treatment. This is a credit to the addiction medicine community who advocated from outside government for the change. It is also one of many reasons why elections matter: Obama-appointed officials in DoD, HHS and the White House drug policy office all pushed hard for this reform. As a result, the 9.6 million current and former military personnel and their families who are covered by Tri-Care will finally have access to evidence-based care for opiate addiction.

[Cross-posted at The Reality-Based Community]

Keith Humphreys is a professor of psychiatry and behavioral medicine at the Stanford University School of Medicine.

Source: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2011/12/the_department_of_defense_does034414.php

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